The Perfect Political Storm

I've been away for a while, distracted by real-world events. Unexpected flooding in New Hampshire required a good deal of my focus, and you can read about the events here. Suffice it to say that the state of New Hampshire did a much better job dealing with the disaster than the government did with the hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast. Granted, the scale was dramatically different, but government officials approached the Northeast crisis with a determination to do what needed to be done, regardless of cost. There was no blame game because everyone essentially did their jobs.

If New Hampshire held gubernatorial elections today, Gov. John Lynch would keep his job in a landslide. If President Bush were up for re-election today, he would lose by a landslide. Polls show that he doesn't have the worst numbers of any president ever, just the lowest of his presidential career. The drop is also remarkably steep for a man who enjoyed historically high approval ratings immediately following Sept. 11, 2001.

The decline in approval was sparked by what was seen as an ineffective response to Hurricane Katrina, but it's being heightened by the Harriet Miers Supreme Court nomination. While apologists were eager to demonize local officials and even the residents of the hurricane-struck areas themselves for their untimely deaths following Katrina, many of these same people are resoundingly criticizing the president for his choice of Miers. The difference is that Katrina, even though it called to attention chronic weaknesses in the government's emergency readiness, could somewhat cynically be seen as a one-time event, something that can fade from the public consciousness. A Supreme Court nomination, however, has the potential to change the country for decades to come.

President Bush's support came from a variety of groups that were in large part united on moral issues. At least, that was the bill of goods sold to many Americans who would have been better served by not voting for Bush. In terms of economics and overall quality of life, a relatively small portion of Americans actually stood to benefit from a Bush presidency. That's not to say that a well informed, lower- to middle-class American could not have logically come to the decision that voting for Bush was the right choice to make. Based on the moral arguments being put forth, a person might think that a hit to the wallet was worth maintaining or restoring the moral fiber of America. The fact that those moral arguments did not have logical consistency and were put forth solely for the purpose of getting Bush elected means, to my mind, that it was not a rational choice for these people to make, but it's at least somewhat understandable.

With the Miers nomination, the tensions between the various groups that supported Bush are laid bare. The moral arguments that were made are now being shown (some say) to have been simply a cynical power ploy to elect the president. He apparently has no desire to shape the moral fabric of the country, and his administration is acting just like an extension of the classic Texas "Good Old Boy" network, rewarding cronies for their fawning service. That's what the critics say, at least. In truth, not enough is known about Miers to be able to determine whether this concern of the Right has merit. She could be to the far right of Scalia, and no one would know.

Nonetheless, it's an opening for criticism, and coming right after Katrina, it's another powerful wedge. And it's something Bush is having to face without another crony, Karl Rove, who has been marginalized in the Valerie Plame affair. Congressional support is somewhat lessened as well, with the indictment of Tom DeLay (though DeLay's progeny still holds the positions of power in the House). Traditional Republicans (remember those folks who called for smaller government and individual responsibility? Way back in the day? Yeah, those Republicans) are asserting themselves again, hoping to put the party back on a track that might be able to salvage the mess the neocons made. And all under a watchful, revitalized press.

It remains to be seen how this will all play out politically. It's still a long time before the next presidential election, so all eyes will be on the midterms to see if Americans' newfound disdain for the leadership translates to the polls.